What If the 2020 Tokyo Olympics Were Canceled Completely? (2024)

By Edcel Panganiban August 09, 2024 03:27

Photo by Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters

The 2020 Tokyo Olympics were held in the backdrop of numerous challenges primarily due to the COVID-19. The pandemic's unprecedented global impact forced a postponement, but what if the ultimate decision had been to cancel the event entirely? The Tokyo Olympics, anticipated with fervor and planned with meticulous detail, stood as a beacon of international unity and competition. Yet, in this alternate reality, the flame never lights, the athletes do not march under their flags, and the world is left to ponder the ripple effects of such an absence.

This exploration looks into the multifaceted outcomes that could have emerged, ranging from economic downturns to missed opportunities for cultural exchange, leaving us to wonder about the full impact of a global celebration lost to uncertainty.

Reasons for Cancellation

COVID-19 Pandemic

The most obvious would have been and still is the global pandemic. The result was an international event that typically hosted thousands of athletes and millions more spectators. Still, it had been sidelined as countries frantically responded to the virus with lockdowns and travel restrictions. The health dangers of simply staging a competition where hundreds of thousands would have gathered might be a key consideration in scrubbing the games.

Political Tensions

The Olympics frequently become a forum of international diplomacy and unity, but the increasing geopolitical tensions in North Korea or between the US and China may have resulted. They may have chosen to forgo the Games and withdraw altogether, where nations are not content their athletes can compete safely or within rules, thus prompting the IOC to cancel the Games.

Other Major Global Events

Consequently, the Olympics could have been canceled due to other major life-changing global events such as natural disasters or wide-reaching economic collapses. In this case, if there had been an earthquake in Japan or they were going to face some other major catastrophe right as the Games approached, then we would have canceled instead. Not only from a safety point of view but logistically, it was clear that you could not hold those types of events.

Economic Impacts

Host City and Japan Financial Loss

It would have had long-term economic effects, particularly if the Tokyo Games were scrapped entirely. The original budget for the event was $7.3 billion, but construction and operating expenses increased it to over $15 billion. Consequently, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government and the Japanese economy would have incurred billions in lost revenue from tourism, hospitality, and other related businesses.

The institutions that would have been most affected by this would have been the businesses around the Olympic arena.Approximately one million tourists were expected, and almost all hotels, restaurants, and transportation services had served the visitors. In their absence, many businesses would have incurred revenue losses. The hospitality industry, for example, would have lost billions due to canceled bookings. It would also have resulted in millions of job losses, as thousands of people in the hospitality industry would have lost their jobs.

The IOC is another body that would have incurred financial losses. It is heavily dependent on broadcasting rights, sponsorships, and ticket sales. The IOC had already declared it would finance the event, and losing such monies would have destabilized it financially.

Also, it would have been a sad day for many athletes who invested their entire lives training for the event. Only a few of them receive a chance to represent their respective countries, and it is the dream of almost every athlete.

Effect on Pride and Prestige of the Nation

A cancellation would have also deprived Japan of its chance to put on a unique display and demonstrate the company's hospitality and technological prowess, among other draws. The Games were meant to be an opportunity for Japan to bounce back from the 2011 earthquake and tsunami so that a cancelation would have been perceived as a failure on a world stage.

Disruption of Cultural Events

There is much more to the Olympics than sports; they consist of an extensive collection of corresponding cultural events and festivities. A total cancellation would have derailed weeks of cultural festivities, such as exhibitions, performances, and community-world ware planned to celebrate the games and Japan and promote Japanese culture.

Logistical Challenges

Completely canceling theGames would have been complicated, to say the least. It would involve breaching or renegotiating contracts with venues, suppliers, and service providers that could potentially spiral into legal battles anyway. The complicated nature of handling these contracts would further burden the organizing committee.

Reallocation of Resources

Resources assigned for the Olympics, both infrastructural and personnel, would have to be shifted. This could have been a waste of funds spent on building them specifically for the Games, whose infrastructure might be underused or abandoned.

Impact on Infrastructure

Transportation improvements and the construction of new sports venues were some of Tokyo's biggest investments for this year's Olympics. A termination would have left these projects in the lurch and, potentially, without ongoing public service benefits for the city.

Long-term Implications

Impact on Future Olympic Bids

Should the Tokyo Olympics be nixed entirely for various reasons, not least among them potential implications for Olympic bid cities going forward, there would be far-reaching effects. Prospective host cities could have second thoughts about spending big to hold the Games, knowing what risks planning entails if a surprise global event occurs. In turn, fewer cities might be willing to bid for the right to stage the Olympics.

Public Trust in the IOC

A cancellation could also focus attention on the IOC's workings and how it handles its response to crises. The IOC seemingly has no real sense of the kind of event they are hoping to host nor how appropriately promoting and running an Olympics on such a grand scale would make them appear competent. This could lead to negative public opinions affecting support towards both themselves and their grossly scaled events.

Future of the Olympic Games

Lastly, the very existence of the Olympic Games over a longer term is on trial. We are already discussing making the Olympics more sustainable and commercializing their hosting. Full cancellation would bring these discussions to a head, however, either through reforming how we organize and host the Games so that it can truly change its ways or accepting that its hours have passed.

The consequences would have stretched from the immediate economic reverberations to implications for the wider Olympic movement. As the globe slowly recovers from one global event to another, we can only reflect on what transpired at the Tokyo Olympics, whether it was postponed or canceled, and how different sports can turn out in future international sporting events.

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